Hekmatyar speaks...

Earlier this month, CBS News managed to track down Hezb-e Islami faction leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar for a rare televised interview.  Hekmatyar called for "...all foreign forces to leave [Afghanistan] immediately without any pre-condition...this is the demand of the entire Afghan nation...".  He talked of "resistance spreading" and the Afghan government as a "...failed and detested entity..." with "high officials involved in drug smuggling".  He also called for the American people to elect a president who was not a warmonger and for the US to use its resources to bring peace and stability. 

Hekmatyar gives the word "notorious" a bad name.  Although he studied as an engineer at Kabul University, he became "radicalised" in today's parlance in the late 1970s and has been leading a faction of the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin (HIG), a militant Islamic political and resistance movement named after him ever since.  A ruthless and effective organiser, he was favoured by the Pakistani military in the 1980s when they were providing weapons and training to the Mujahideen groups fighting the Soviets, of which Hezb-e Islami were part.  Hekmatyar's fighters became known for basing themselves on the supply lines of other Mujahideen groups in order to attack them and take their weapons and supplies.  During the civil war, it was his forces largely responsible for the wholesale destruction of Kabul through rocket bombardment.   HIG sided with the Taleban after the Taleban's defeat by the US in 2001 and Hekmatyar's forces have been part of the insurgency ever since - albeit with seemingly less and less direct impact on the fighting.  A pragmatist and a survivor (crucial Afghan skills) HIG could never quite be written off and his relationship with the Taleban and Al Qa'ida has been opaque.  He reportedly split from an alliance with the Taleban last year but HIG representatives seemed to retract this later.   He has been careful to avoiding burning political bridges, particularly where he has an opportunity to develop his own powerbase and other recent press reporting of Afghan government spokesmen suggests that the Karzai government may be looking to strike a deal with him and return him to the Afghan political fold.

Certainly Hekmatyar seems to moderating his tone gradually - in 2006 he said: "Honestly, we don't mind this insane team staying in the White House.  It will not cause us any harm, at least, if not the opposite.  We would regret to see a wise President ascending to the President post in the US".  In this more recent interview he asks the American people to "send someone to the White House who is wise and a real leader, not a warmonger."  

Does Hekmatyar matter?  Well, yes and no.  He has looked about to drop off the radar for sometime now and talks with the current government (although difficult to tell how genuine the talks are and what might emerge if a deal was reached) may be indicative of just how weak and irrelevant he fears he might now be.  Time, perhaps, for him to jump ship again?  Although this will probably see a dip in attack levels in RC(East), where his main residual support base lies, it should not make a significant dent in Taleban fighting capability.   Cutting a deal with Hekmatyar will be unpopular with many groups and powerbrokers in Afghanistan and within the international community.  The US have formally declared him a terrorist, he has many enemies within the remaining members of the former Northern Alliance who are strongly influential in government and parliament and international human rights watchers will have grave concerns over his past history.  It is also difficult to see what  Karzai might gain, other than initial and short-term "feel good factor" of removing a reasonably high profile insurgent.  But a Hekmatyar in government would not be a willing pawn and could probably do more to destabilise the Afghan state within it than without...