Karzai again offers talks with Taliban leader

Some potentially very significant developments going in Kabul for a number of reasons.  Although Karzai has made clear in the past his desire to talk to Mullah Omar in order to bring the fighting to a halt, it has not previously been in such strong language.  This time he guaranteed safe passage to Mullah Omar, stating that if the international committee didn’t like this they could either remove him (Karzai) or leave.  Interestingly, as of about 10 minutes ago, Reuters India report that the Taliban, far from rejecting this appeal outright, are believed to be “preparing a response”.  This is of course no guarantee that the Taliban are now interested in talks – their language has been quite categorical in the past – no talks while the international military presence is in Afghanistan.

This is another useful reminder to the international community that, while it may seem that they still call all the strategic, political and military shots – all eyes and ears on the Obama/Petraeus “Comprehensive Surge” – the potential for Karzai, his government and the parliament to carve their own way (or ways) is growing stronger.  Karzai appears serious and looks less inclined to consult with the international community to gain their approval before he acts.

On balance I judge that this initiative will still be insufficient to sway the Taliban leadership – they are still on a roll in terms of military operations, but perhaps the day is getting closer when Taliban representatives are going to be paying Karzai a visit.  We need to keep a close eye on likely reactions from the Afghan population and, of course, the key powerbrokers – religious and ethnic leaders and “warlords”.  They will be watching with a mixture of interest and suspicion.  They will want to know the terms of any deal.